Love him or hate him, Donald Trump’s background in real estate has made his presidency a hot topic for anyone in the industry. After all, the guy built his brand (and fortune) on luxury properties, skyscrapers, and, yes, a few controversial deals. Now that he’s recently inaugurated, there’s been a lot of chatter about what his leadership could mean for real estate—whether you’re an agent, investor, developer, or just someone hoping to buy a home.
Let’s break it down: the good, the bad, and the stuff that’s a bit harder to pin down.
The Good: Why Trump Could Be a Win for Real Estate
If there’s one thing we know about Trump, it’s that he lives, breathes and certainly gets real estate. That alone makes some people in the industry feel hopeful. Here’s why:
1. Tax Breaks Are on the Table
Trump’s all about cutting taxes, and that could mean big things for real estate investors and developers. He’s been vocal about lowering corporate taxes and keeping perks like the 1031 exchange (that handy little rule that lets investors defer taxes when swapping one property for another).
More money in investors’ pockets? That could lead to more deals, more developments, and, hopefully, more opportunities for everyone in the business.
2. Infrastructure Plans Could Boost Property Values
Trump has talked a lot about upgrading America’s infrastructure—roads, bridges, airports, you name it. While it’s unclear how much of this will actually happen, better infrastructure generally means higher property values in areas that benefit. Think about it: a shiny new highway or upgraded public transit can make a once-overlooked area the next big thing.
3. A Pro-Business Mindset
Trump’s administration leans heavily on the pro-business side, which could mean cutting back on regulations that slow down development. Less red tape could make it easier (and cheaper) to get projects off the ground. For developers, that’s music to their ears.
The Bad: Where Trump Could Be a Real Estate Headache
Of course, it’s not all sunshine and skyscrapers. Trump’s future policies also could create some challenges for everyone in the industry, too.
1. Rising Interest Rates = Painful Punch To Buyer Pool
One big concern on everyone’s mind is, “what’s gonna happen with interest rates?” The Fed has already hinted at raising rates, and Trump’s plans for tax cuts and infrastructure spending could push rates higher. For buyers, this means more expensive mortgage rates. For developers, it means higher borrowing and building costs. In either case, rising rates could slow the housing market yet again, especially for first-time buyers already feeling priced out of a home.
2. Immigration Policies Might Hurt Construction
The construction industry relies heavily on immigrant labor. If Trump follows through on his strict immigration policies, labor shortages could become a serious issue. Fewer workers mean higher costs and slower timelines for projects. That’s not great news for developers—or anyone waiting on a new home, apartment complex, or commercial building (fortunately, commercial buildings are in surplus for now).
3. Unpredictability Is Scary
Trump’s leadership style can feel a bit… unpredictable. One day, he’s cutting taxes; the next, he’s threatening tariffs or shaking up trade policies. That kind of uncertainty makes investors nervous. For example, Trump’s stance on limiting foreign investment (like from China) could slow down the flow of capital into big markets like NYC or LA.
The Gray Area: Not All Good, Not All Bad
Some of Trump’s potential impacts on real estate fall somewhere in the middle—it all depends on how things play out.
1. Deregulation: Helpful or Risky?
On one hand, cutting back on regulations can make development faster and cheaper. On the other hand, less oversight can lead to environmental concerns or pushback from communities. It’s a double-edged sword that could swing either way, depending on how it’s handled.
2. Trade Policies and Construction Costs
Trump’s “America First” trade policies sound great in theory, but they could make building materials like steel and lumber more expensive due to tariffs (though steel supplies may increase if the focus turns more toward local sourcing). Higher costs for materials = higher costs for projects, which isn’t great for developers (or consumers, as those costs tend to get passed down to buyers, renters, etc.). That said, if those policies boost the economy overall, there could be indirect benefits for real estate.
3. Luxury Market: Boom or Bust?
Trump’s name is practically a synonym for luxury, so this presidency could have a larger-than-life impact on the high-end and luxury market (news sites have recently mentioned an influx of wealthy Trump appointees flocking to the D.C. area to start). Wealthy investors might love the tax breaks and pro-business climate. However, Trump’s polarizing reputation is always a factor, meaning he could also scare off some buyers, especially international ones who aren’t sure about his stance on foreign investment.
So, Is Trump Good or Bad for Real Estate?
In all honesty, it’s still a pretty mixed bag. If you’re looking for a potential sunny side of things, you may cite that Trump’s pro-business mindset, tax plans, and real estate expertise could create some big opportunities for the industry. But there are definitely risks—rising interest rates, labor shortages, and unpredictability being the big ones.
At the end of the day, it’ll depend on what policies actually play out and how the market reacts to said policies. If you’re in real estate, this is a time to stay on your toes, keep an eye on trends, and be ready to adapt.
What do you think? Is Trump’s presidency good, bad, or somewhere in between for real estate? Let’s talk about it in the comments!
